Saturday’s $10,250 Fitzroy Hotel Cheers Drought Master Lager Nanango Cup (1600m) is a weighty problem.
The fact that five acceptors are all on the set minimum mark at 55 kilograms is likely to mean nothing to the uninitiated. However, it is worth exploring further.
Handicappers also release the True Weight for each horse.
It is the allocation that would have been used if the range could have been stretched out more at the lower end.
The figures, in kilograms, are as follows: Gambit (53.5), Airlie Man (50.5), Legs Unbarred (49.5), Craiglea Simmo (47) and Camouflage Girl (44.5 kg).
So this means, for example, that Craiglea Simmo is a massive 6.5 kilograms worse off when compared with Gambit.
Camouflage Girl’s number indicates how far out of her class she is – her only victory was at Lee Park in soft going over the mile in February.
It is interesting to recall that in last year’s Cup, Executed (Jason Missen) prevailed by a length despite humping 66 kilograms, a load that was 11 kilograms more than that carried by the runner-up Fasta Than Light (Hannah Richardson).
Gud Onya (Ana Bakos, 52.5 kg) was another length away in third spot.
Geoffrey Schrader’s charge, originally given 55 kilograms, had the benefit of the apprentice’s claim.
Analysts would probably suggest that, on weights, there are just three main chances, namely Gud Onya (60 kg), Certain Doubt (56.5 kg) and Gambit (55kg).
Gud Onya has won three times since the 2019 Cup placing so his rating and therefore his handicap has been increased.
He is a specialist on the sand at Roma where he has chalked up eight of his dozen victories.
If he can fire on a firm surface, Rebecca Wilson’s three kilogram claim will be useful.
At first glance, it would seem that Certain Doubt, at his best at a mile and a little further, has not been shining this preparation when chasing higher prizemoney.
However the distance from the winner data is encouraging – four of his five successes have been at Caloundra.
His Eagle Farm trainer Jon Walk very rarely appears at non-TAB meetings, so the ex-jockey is likely to be either confident or desperate.
Meanwhile, Vo Rogue’s mate Cyril Small will be aboard the six-year-old by Not A Single Doubt.
Gambit ticks most boxes.
The Strategic Manuever gelding is an on pace type and will be totally suited to the talents of local premier jockey Hannah Richardson.
From 49 opportunities, the consistent Bundaberg galloper has filled a top four spot 25 times.
The 5:2-1-0 Lee Park form line is a real plus, particularly with the return over 1600 metres standing at 4:1-1-0.
Airlie Man’s weight disadvantage will be offset by Shannyn Stephan’s three kilogram allowance.
Nanango mentor Scott Pedron is set to saddle up the Excites chestnut that has a chance at odds.
The seven-year-old, that will not be worried by the distance, turned in a good fourth at BM 50 last month at his only outing at Lee Park.
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Bits And Bridles
- Last weekend’s $15,000 Bundaberg Cup was taken out by the lightweight Elusive Element (Shannyn Stephan, $18) for Kym Afford, the Kilkivan horseman whose string works out Wondai.
- Hannah Richardson, who landed a double on Scruff’N’Stuff and Wrecking Ball at the same meeting, will also partner Tedder Express for Laura Cronan, Arriverderci Roma for Pat Duff and both Brigalow Queen and Fury of the Storm for her husband Glenn.
- Barry Phillips and his daughter Hannah will combine at Goondiwindi with Telloff in the BM 50 over 1800 metres.
Remember: Covid 19 restrictions apply again at Lee Park.