June 16, 2026
The Bureau of Meteorology confirmed on Tuesday that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – a key driver of Australian weather conditions – is now in an El Niño phase.
A BOM spokesperson said El Niño often brings drier conditions to central and eastern Australia in winter and spring, but Australia’s weather was also shaped by other climate factors, so outcomes could vary.
The last El Niño was a moderate to strong event that developed in Spring 2023 and lasted into early 2024.
BOM issued a July-to-September long-range forecast on June 11 which predicted:
- Rainfall was likely to be below average across parts of southern and eastern Australia
- Temperatures were likely to be above average in most areas, except parts of the north
BOM emphasised that “below average rainfall” does not mean no rain, just less than usual, and that every El Niño was different.
Rainfall and temperature impacts can vary from one El Niño event to another, eg. winter to spring rainfall in 2002 was very different from 2015.
El Niño events usually last from six to 12 months, though in some rare cases, they have persisted for up to two years.
