June 2, 2026
ABARES is forecasting the value of agricultural production to fall by 5 per cent to $98.3 billion in 2026-27 and average broadacre farm business profits to drop by 70 per cent.
Agricultural exports are expected to drop $7 billion to $74.8 billion as a result of lower crop production volume and livestock prices.
High fuel and fertiliser costs are putting pressure on growers’ returns, but the drier seasonal outlook was expected to have a greater impact on grower decisions.
The falls follow record results in 2025-26.
ABARES Acting Executive Director David Galeano said that while the Middle East conflict was affecting input prices and weighing on global economic growth, the value of production overall was remaining resilient.
“Farmers’ decisions over the last few months have been shaped heavily by seasonal conditions and gross margins,” he said.
“Despite the headwinds facing the sector, farmers who have received favourable rainfall are making the most of the opportunity.
“However, variable rainfall in summer and autumn has limited area planted to winter crops and pasture growth in some regions.
“Also, many cropping regions are expected to face drier-than-average winter conditions.”
Total crop production value is forecast to fall by $4.5 billion in 2026-27 to $50.9 billion.
Australian winter crop production is forecast to decline by 21 per cent to 54.5 million tonnes, reflecting lower average yields and a fall in the area planted.
Summer crop production is estimated to have fallen by 15 per cent to 4.4 million tonnes in 2025-26, but still well above the 10-year average to 2024-25.
Livestock and livestock product value is forecast to decline by $1.1 billion in 2026-27 to $47.4 billion, driven by lower prices and down from a record high in 2025-26.
Higher input costs and lower crop and livestock production are expected to affect profits.
“We expect fertiliser and fuel input costs to remain elevated in 2026-27. Farm revenue is forecast to decline due to lower crop and livestock production volumes and lower prices received for livestock,” Mr Galeano said.
- The ABARES June 2026 quarter Agricultural Commodities and Australian Crop reports is available online
