November 5, 2015
Despite drought, climate change, international conflicts, interest rate uncertainty and the Chinese downturn, apparently Australia actually has a pretty rosy future.
The CSIRO released a report on Thursday that says Australia is well placed to “secure prosperity” over the coming decades despite the challenges of an uncertain and possible “resource-constrained future”.
However, it admits this prosperity is not a given … the country’s future will be shaped by “innovation and technology uptake and the choices we make as a society”.
CSIRO says the “Australian National Outlook” is the most comprehensive quantitative analysis yet of the interactions between economic growth, water-energy-food use, environmental outcomes and living standards.
Executive Director Dr Alex Wonhas said the report focused on the “physical economy'” that contributes to about 75 per cent of natural resource use and produces about 25 per cent of Australia’s GDP.
“(It) is a first attempt to understand and analyse the connections in Australia’s physical environment many decades into the future,” Dr Wonhas said.
“It has a particular focus on understanding two aspects: The ‘water- energy-food nexus’ and the prospects for Australia’s materials- and energy-intensive industries.”
The report lists a number of potential opportunities across the Australian economy.
“For example, we find strong growth prospects for Australia’s agri-food production which are forecast to increase at least 50 per cent by 2050, provided long-term productivity improvements can be maintained in line with historical rates,” Dr Wonhas said.
“There’s also the possibility of a win-win for farmers with potential growth in agri-food exports and new income sources for rural landholders through carbon farming on less productive land.”
The report notes that as Australia’s population grows, so too does water demand.
“Despite projections of a doubling of our water use, Australia could meet this growth as well as enhance urban water security and avoid increased environmental pressures through increased water recycling, desalination and integrated catchment management,” Dr Wonhas said.
The report also says energy and other resources could remain a pillar of the Australian economy well into the future, and energy-intensive industries could be “well-positioned to continue to grow, even in scenarios where the world is taking global action to significantly limit greenhouse gas emissions”.
“The key to this success will be innovation and application of smart technologies,” Dr Wonhas said.
“We hope the (the report) will help Australia chart its future in an increasingly complex and interconnected world.”
It explores more than 20 possible futures for Australia out to 2050 against the backdrop of the past 40 years.
The report was prepared by a team of 40 CSIRO experts and university collaborators, and draws on observed data and analysis.
- “Australian National Outlook” can be downloaded from the CSIRO website
- External link: Tax Grabs Could Put Democracy At Risk, Says Ross Garnaut
