April 21, 2026
The global fertiliser market faces a prolonged period of tight supply and price pressures, even if geopolitical tensions ease soon, according to agribusiness banker Rabobank.
The group’s recently released “Semi-Annual Fertiliser Outlook” said market normalisation would be slow.
“The escalating geopolitical disruption in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have removed a substantial volume of fertilisers and critical inputs from global trade, triggering an abrupt supply shock that cannot be quickly replaced,” the report says.
“The resulting market environment is characterised by tight availability, sharply higher prices and elevated volatility across major nutrients.”
Rabobank noted that fertiliser affordability was already under pressure in 2025, as prices for nitrogen and phosphates had steadily increased; it had now deteriorated rapidly.
Commodities analyst Paul Joules said the conflict had again highlighted the fragility of Australia’s fertiliser supply chain, with the country heavily reliant on imports for critical products, such as urea and MAP (mono-ammonium phosphate).
“Accounting for currency movements, we estimate Middle East granular urea prices have surged an eye-watering 94 per cent year to date,” he said.
He said the Australian dollar – traditionally a key shock absorber for imported farm inputs – had strengthened sharply over the past 12 months.
“However, despite this currency appreciation, fertiliser input prices have remained elevated.
“Against this backdrop of compressed margins, Australian farmers – driven by the combination of disappointing grain prices and elevated fertiliser costs – may increasingly favour crops that have historically demonstrated greater margin resilience under variable seasonal conditions.
“Barley and canola are therefore likely to gain ground relative to wheat.”
