March 4, 2026
ABARES has predicted Australian agriculture will reach a record $101.4 billion in gross production value in 2025-26.
However, values will drop back in 2026-27 with both prices and output expected to soften.
ABARES is forecasting combined agriculture, fisheries and forestry value to top $107.4 billion in 2025-26, also a record.
Despite below average growing season rainfall in 2025-26 across many cropping regions in south-east Australia, growers have delivered the second largest winter crop on record, with timely rainfall and mild spring temperatures helping to drive strong yields.
The value of agricultural exports is forecast to increase 6 per cent ($4.6 billion) to $80.5 billion in 2025-26, and up to $84.8 billion when including fisheries and forestry.
ABARES Executive Director Dr Jared Greenville said the expected higher export values reflected higher crop export volumes, and higher overall livestock and livestock product export prices.
“Following the strong performance this year, we’re expecting production to ease in 2026-27, with below average rainfall expected for much of southern Australia in autumn,” Dr Greenville said.
“Crop prices are also expected to decline in 2026-27 as prices in global markets for many crops decline.
“Challenges in market access and uncertainty over recent trade announcements will weigh on export prices for livestock.”
ABARES is forecasting the gross value of farm production to fall 6 per cent to $95 billion but still high relative to recent years.
Including fisheries and forestry, combined value for the sector is also expected to ease 6 per cent to $101.2 billion in 2026-27.
Livestock and livestock product value is forecast to fall by 8 per cent to $43 billion in 2026-27, reflecting lower prices and volumes.
Value of crop production is expected to fall 5 per cent to $52 billion, reflecting lower production volume.
“These declines, combined with a rise in farm costs, will also flow on to broadacre farm profit, which is expected to fall by 14 per cent to an average of $126,000 per farm in 2026-27,” Dr Greenville said.
