May 15, 2024

The Bureau of Meteorology has moved to a La Niña Watch.

A spokesperson said on Tuesday that while conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean were currently neutral, there were some signs that a La Niña may form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024.

It was important to note, however, it was just as likely the tropical Pacific Ocean would remain neutral.

Moving to La Niña watch does not mean the Bureau is declaring that a La Niña event is under way.

BOM climate manager Dr Karl Braganza said rainfall and temperature forecasts were not based on the status of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation outlook.

“The best guidance for future rainfall or temperature forecasts is the Bureau’s long-range forecast,” Dr Braganza said.

“The long-range forecast for June to August is showing an increased chance of above-average rainfall for parts of eastern Australia and parts of Western Australia and South Australia

“There are roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall for most of eastern Australia, including much of Queensland, NSW, Victoria and Tasmania.”

June to August maximum and minimum temperatures were very likely to be above median across all States and Territories.

The Bureau’s long-range forecast winter outlook would be released at the end of May, while the Spring and Summer outlooks would be released later in the year.

La Niña, along with El Niño, is part of a natural climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).


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