March 14, 2023
The Bureau of Meteorology has formally declared the latest La Niña is over.
The tropical Pacific Ocean is now in a neutral phase, neither La Niña nor El Niño.
However, BOM has moved its status to El Niño WATCH as there are there are some signs of an El Niño forming later in the year.
El Niño WATCH means there is a 50 per cent chance of an El Niño occurring in 2023.
BOM spokesperson Dr Andrew Watkins said after three years of La Niña and record-breaking rainfall in eastern Australia, the long-range forecast was for drier-than-average conditions for most of Australia over coming months.
“Long-range forecasts show there’s an increased chance of below average rainfall for most of Australia during autumn 2023,” Dr Watkins said.
“But the northern wet season, including the tropical cyclone season, for northern Australia continues during March and April, so there remains the chance of tropical weather systems bringing heavy rain at times to the north.”
If these tropical weather systems extended south, there remained the possibility of periods of heavy rainfall and flooding, particularly in parts of eastern Australia where soils remain wet and rivers and dams were still full.
Dr Watkins said if the chance of an El Niño forming later in 2023 increased to about 70 per cent, BOM would change to El Niño ALERT status.
“Even if El Niño impacts Australia, this does not necessarily lead to drought,” he said.
“There have been 27 El Niño years since 1900, and around 18 of those years were affected by widespread winter-spring drought.”
- Related article: El Niño Could Develop: WMO
