August 31, 2016
The South Burnett should have a “normal” bushfire season this year although active fires are still probable, according to predictions from the federally funded Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre released on Wednesday.
The group’s Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2016 predicts that in many parts of Australia the start of the bushfire season may be delayed due to higher levels of rainfall during spring, but that fuel loads are also likely to increase as a result.
However, the report warns that temperature and rainfall outlooks for the next few months would be crucial factors for influencing the development of fire threats.
Warmer conditions have contributed to elevated fire risk in recent years.
“For every month of 2016 the Australian national mean temperature has been above average,” the report notes.
“This warmth culminated in the August 2015 to July 2016 period, which was was +1.33°C above the 1961-1990 average, the largest anomaly for any 12-month period since records began in 1910.
“Despite a number of significant cold spells, winter has continued the pattern of above average temperatures, with a mean temperature anomaly of +0.9˚C
“The longer-term changes are important for the season ahead, noting that Summer 2015/2016 marked the fourteenth consecutive warmer-than-average southern fire season (October to April). ”
The CRC predicts that parts of Queensland are at higher-than-normal risk over coming months, although an above-normal fire season was unlikely across most of the State.
However, an active fire season was more likely – and still probable – in areas with underlying soil dryness.
“Soil moisture is relatively dry to the west of the Great Dividing Range, from around Bundaberg, and south to the NSW border, particularly around Biggenden, Gayndah, Kingaroy and Dalby,” the report notes.
“While normal fire potential is expected for this outlook period, it is important to recognise that an active fire season is still probable and more likely in the areas with the underlying soil dryness.”
Footnote: Although the official bushfire season has not yet started, South Burnett rural brigades have been in action over the past week or so at grassfires at Benarkin, East Nanango, Booie, Johnstown, Hivesville, Alice Creek, Ballogie, Coverty, Gordonbrook, Mannuem, Cherbourg, Redgate, Kilkivan and Woolooga.
- Download Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Hazard Note (1Mb PDF)
