February 4, 2026
Former ABC chief election analyst Antony Green has suggested it’s possible three South Burnett federal seats – currently held by LNP MPs – could fall to One Nation at the next election.
In a personal blog post published earlier this week, Mr Green listed the 25 seats to watch which he believes One Nation could win.
Twelve are in Queensland, six in NSW, three in Victoria, two in Western Australia and one each in South Australia and Tasmania.
He highlighted Maranoa, currently held by Nationals Leader David Littleproud, because One Nation came second at the last Federal Election after preferences were distributed.
The other seat in the same position was Hunter in NSW.
“In both seats the One Nation candidate finished third on first preferences but reached second place through preferences flowing from other right-of-centre parties. These included Family First, Trumpet of Patriots, Libertarians, Shooters Fishers and Farmers and Gerard Rennick’s People First,” Mr Green wrote.
The other LNP South Burnett seats – Wide Bay, held by Llew O’Brien, and Flynn, held by Colin Boyce – were listed among Mr Green’s remaining 23 seats.
In these seats, One Nation was in the top three after preferences were distributed.
Based on this three-candidate preferred count, Mr Green listed the Federal seats most at risk of changing hands, in order, as: Wright, Longman, Capricornia, Flynn, Hinkler and Wide Bay.
These seats are all in Queensland; two are currently held by Liberal MPs, while the others are Nationals.
Maranoa was in 24th spot.
- External link: One Nation’s Poll Surge – The First 25 Seats To Watch (Antony Green’s Election Blog)
