September 6, 2022
ABARES’ September quarter Agricultural Commodities Report has predicted agricultural export earnings will climb to a record $70.3 billion for 2022-23, almost 50 per cent more than 10 years ago, even after accounting for inflation.
Executive director Dr Jared Greenville said the industry’s predicted gross value of $81.8 billion showed it was performing strongly, with cropping leading the way.
“Winter crop prospects in Australia are looking very promising at the beginning of spring. We’re forecasting a 55.5 million tonne harvest,” Dr Greenville said.
“Meat production is also rebounding, with the national herd and flock returning to pre-drought levels.
“Favourable seasonal conditions are expected to persist, but global inflation and rising costs of farm inputs could cloud outlook for demand and farm incomes.
“It’s the first time our exports are expected to exceed $70 billion, showing the ability of our farmers to navigate considerable global economic uncertainty and to make a strong contribution to global food supplies.”
Dr Greenville said the latest ABARES forecasts factored in tapering global growth and the likelihood of a third straight La Niña, roughly a once in 30-year event.
“Widespread inflation and a sluggish Chinese economy are the main watchpoints,” he said.
“Global food and fertiliser prices remain very high despite falling from peaks earlier in 2022.
“The World Bank expects high global food prices through to the end of 2024 which will have adverse implications for global food security.
“We’re seeing Australian agriculture leaning into this uncertainty, with continued global demand for our food and fibre, another bumper winter crop and the forecast of continued favourable growing conditions.
“The value of cotton exports is forecast to reach a record $7 billion in 2022-23 to be the third most valuable export commodity after wheat ($11.7 billion) and beef ($10.2 billion).”
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