Poll Result Still In The Balance

February 6, 2015

by Anne Miller

LNP To Vote For Leader On Saturday LNP MPs will meet on Saturday about 11:00am to elect a new Parliamentary Leader following the departure of Campbell Newman. Originally, the MPs were going to wait to see if they needed to elect an “Opposition team” or a “Government team” as the skillsets are said to be different. However, party insiders now say they must elect a leader ahead of the possible Ferny Grove by-election. Former Deputy Premier Jeff Seeney has already indicated that he won’t be tossing his hat into the ring. However, Speaker Fiona Simpson and Transport Minister Scott Emerson have said they are interested, and there is strong support for former National Party leader Lawrence Springborg. Other names previously mentioned, Treasurer Tim Nicholls and John-Paul Langbroek, are believed to have pulled out of the race.

Six days after the State Election, Queenslanders still don’t know who will be Premier – and we probably won’t know for sure until after the Ferny Grove by-election.

That is, if there is a by-election.

The Court of Disputed Returns will most likely be called on to make a ruling following the discovery that one of the candidates standing in the Ferny Grove electorate was ineligible to run.

On Tuesday, the Electoral Commission of Queensland confirmed that Palmer United Party candidate Mark Taverner was an undischarged bankrupt.

While most pundits are tipping that the ALP will eventually be able to form government, the LNP is still well and truly in the race.

At the moment – and with counting still underway – the ALP appears to have won 42 seats and the LNP 39. (12:30pm Feb 6)

Local members Jeff Seeney (Callide) and Deb Frecklington (Nanango) have both been safely returned for the LNP.

Still in doubt are the seats of Lockyer (LNP ahead), Whitsunday (LNP ahead), Mr Ommaney (LNP ahead) and Maryborough (ALP ahead).

The ALP is also ahead in Ferny Grove but the count is on a knife-edge – 49.3% LNP to 50.7% ALP, after preferences.

Many people suspect that if a by-election is called things may well be different.

Voters, stunned by the big State-wide swing to the ALP, if given a second chance (and knowing Campbell Newman has lost Ashgrove) may well swing back enough to give the LNP the seat.

If that happened, and the other three undecided seats stay as tipped, the ALP and LNP would be locked on 43 seats, leaving neither able to form government (45 seats) without the help of the three crossbenchers.

Independent Peter Wellington has already indicated his support for the ALP, which means the final decision on who gets to be Premier will lay in the hands of the Katter’s Australian Party MPs Shane Knuth and Rob Katter – exactly as predicted by KAP’s Nanango candidate Ray Hopper ahead of the poll.

KAP’s main campaign promise was to establish a low-interest State-owned bank for primary producers and small business, and this is one of the demands that the KAP MPs are believed to be pressing during their negotiations.

Other issues likely to be emphasised are making it mandatory for all fuel sold in Queensland to contain10 per cent ethanol and an inquiry into electricity prices.

NB. It should be remembered that Queensland is not actually “leaderless” at the moment. Campbell Newman is caretaker Premier until a new government is sworn in.