October 30, 2014
The Bureau of Meteorology today released its Climate and Water Outlook for November to January, indicating raised odds of warmer and drier than average conditions, with an increased risk of heatwaves and fire weather.
The outlook predicts conditions across the continent.
Manager of Climate Prediction Services, Dr Andrew Watkins, said streamflows were also likely to be lower for the next three months, reducing the risk of widespread flooding.
“Early summer is looking warmer than normal for most of the country, and dry conditions are likely over much of the east and during the wet season build-up in the north,” Dr Watkins said.
“While most ocean and atmospheric indicators have fallen short of El Niño thresholds to date, Pacific Ocean temperature patterns and cooler seas off northern Australia favour some El Niño-like impacts during summer.”
The Climate Outlook for November to January suggests:
- Drier-than-normal conditions across much of central northern and eastern Australia;
- Warmer-than-average days and nights across much of Australia;
- Increased fire risk in the south, as well as a higher likelihood of drought in some areas;
- Increased risk of heatwaves as dry soils, higher pressures and clear skies favour greater heating inland;
- Reduced chance of widespread flooding, but localised flooding typically associated with the northern wet season is likely; and
- Average to below-average tropical cyclone activity, with at least one cyclone expected to cross the Australian coast.
