{"id":368947,"date":"2026-02-04T15:59:14","date_gmt":"2026-02-04T05:59:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/?p=368947"},"modified":"2026-02-04T18:48:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T08:48:13","slug":"poll-expert-lists-seats-to-watch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2026\/02\/04\/poll-expert-lists-seats-to-watch\/","title":{"rendered":"Poll Expert Lists Seats To Watch"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Former ABC chief election analyst Antony Green<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

February 4, 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

Former ABC chief election analyst Antony Green has suggested it’s possible three South Burnett federal seats – currently held by LNP MPs – could fall to One Nation at the next election.<\/p>\n

In a personal blog post published earlier this week, Mr Green listed the 25 seats to watch which he believes One Nation could win.<\/p>\n

Twelve are in Queensland, six in NSW, three in Victoria, two in Western Australia and one each in South Australia and Tasmania.<\/p>\n

He highlighted Maranoa, currently held by Nationals Leader David Littleproud, because One Nation came second at the last Federal Election after preferences were distributed.<\/p>\n

The other seat in the same position was Hunter in NSW.<\/p>\n

“In both seats the One Nation candidate finished third on first preferences but reached second place through preferences flowing from other right-of-centre parties. These included Family First, Trumpet of Patriots, Libertarians, Shooters Fishers and Farmers and Gerard Rennick\u2019s People First,” Mr Green wrote.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The other LNP South Burnett seats – Wide Bay, held by Llew O’Brien, and Flynn, held by Colin Boyce – were listed among Mr Green’s remaining 23 seats.<\/p>\n

In these seats, One Nation was in the top three after preferences were distributed.<\/p>\n

Based on this three-candidate preferred count, Mr Green listed the Federal seats most at risk of changing hands, in order, as: Wright, Longman, Capricornia, Flynn, Hinkler and Wide Bay.<\/p>\n

These seats are all in Queensland; two are currently held by Liberal MPs, while the others are Nationals.<\/p>\n

Maranoa was in 24th spot.<\/p>\n