{"id":335225,"date":"2023-08-01T17:10:08","date_gmt":"2023-08-01T07:10:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/?p=335225"},"modified":"2023-08-02T21:07:41","modified_gmt":"2023-08-02T11:07:41","slug":"rates-tip-was-on-the-money","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/08\/01\/rates-tip-was-on-the-money\/","title":{"rendered":"Rates Tip Was On The Money"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>
KCCI president Damien Martoo with Bendigo Bank chief economist David Robertson<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

August 1, 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n

Anyone who attended last week’s economic update evening, hosted by the Kingaroy Chamber of Commerce of Industry, won’t have been surprised by Tuesday’s interest rates announcement.<\/p>\n

Bendigo Bank’s chief economist David Robertson tipped there would be no rates rise, which is exactly what happened on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

The Reserve Bank left the cash rate on hold at 4.1 per cent, for the second month in a row.<\/p>\n

Mr Robertson said he expected most countries’ rates would peak about 5.5 per cent before they began cutting to rescue their economies, however the case in Australia would be different.<\/p>\n

If Australia’s rate hadn’t already peaked at 4.1 per cent, he tipped it would rise to 4.35 per cent before levelling off.<\/p>\n

This could occur in November after the next set of quarterly inflation numbers were released.<\/p>\n

“What I don’t expect is rate cuts, certainly not until 2025. Until you get inflation back within that 2-3 per cent band, the Reserve Bank won’t have the luxury to be able to cut rates,” Mr Robertson said.<\/strong><\/p>\n

He wanted to be the bearer of “realistic news” rather than “bad news”.<\/p>\n

The Reserve Bank has lifted interest rates 12 times since last May.<\/p>\n

“With 4 per cent of rate hikes this quickly, it is going to have an impact on the national economy,” Mr Robertson said.<\/p>\n

Rate rises are designed to limit spending but also increase unemployment.<\/p>\n

Mr Robertson weighed up the risks of a “hard landing” for the economy and the risk of a recession.<\/p>\n

He said the economic cycle in Australia – and in most western economies – lasted about seven years.<\/p>\n

“Every seven years or so we will get an economic contraction,” he said.<\/p>\n

He said Australia had enjoyed a number of “soft landings” since the early 90s, but the chances of a “hard landing” (ie. going into a recession), this time were about 60 per cent.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The depth of this recession would depend on how many further rates hikes were made by the Reserve Bank.<\/p>\n

Mr Robertson said the economy was always going to be hit by inflation coming out of the pandemic, but this had been “supercharged” by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

It was also happening at a time when the world was trying to transition to net zero and artificial intelligence was coming in.<\/p>\n

“It’s a really complex environment,” he said.<\/p>\n

But the Reserve Bank appeared to be choosing a deliberate “hard landing” as their preferred method of dealing with inflation.<\/p>\n

Mr Robertson said some regions would deal with the recession better than others.<\/strong><\/p>\n

“In particular, I think the Queensland economy – and indeed, the south-east Queensland economy – is one of the star performers,” he said.<\/p>\n

Mr Robertson said if RBA Governor Phillip Lowe hadn’t hiked rates to the degree he has, there would have been a real risk that inflation would have grown out of control.<\/p>\n

The KCCI update was held at the association’s Hub building in Kingaroy Street last Thursday night.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Anyone who attended last week’s economic update evening, hosted by the Kingaroy Chamber of Commerce of Industry, won’t have been surprised by Tuesday’s interest rates announcement.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":335226,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5,16,3],"tags":[21],"yoast_head":"\nRates Tip Was On The Money - southburnett.com.au<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Anyone who attended last week's economic update evening, hosted by the Kingaroy Chamber of Commerce of Industry, won't have been surprised by Tuesday's interest rates announcement.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/08\/01\/rates-tip-was-on-the-money\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rates Tip Was On The Money - southburnett.com.au\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Anyone who attended last week's economic update evening, hosted by the Kingaroy Chamber of Commerce of Industry, won't have been surprised by Tuesday's interest rates announcement.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/08\/01\/rates-tip-was-on-the-money\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"southburnett.com.au\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-08-01T07:10:08+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-08-02T11:07:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/20230724kcci.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"740\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"460\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Anne Miller\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Anne Miller\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/08\/01\/rates-tip-was-on-the-money\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/08\/01\/rates-tip-was-on-the-money\/\",\"name\":\"Rates Tip Was On The Money - southburnett.com.au\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-08-01T07:10:08+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-08-02T11:07:41+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/#\/schema\/person\/d43a5027bdddc95f54e9c6274d8a57ae\"},\"description\":\"Anyone who attended last week's economic update evening, hosted by the Kingaroy Chamber of Commerce of Industry, won't have been surprised by Tuesday's interest rates announcement.\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/08\/01\/rates-tip-was-on-the-money\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/\",\"name\":\"southburnett.com.au\",\"description\":\"Kingaroy and South Burnett News\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/#\/schema\/person\/d43a5027bdddc95f54e9c6274d8a57ae\",\"name\":\"Anne Miller\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/author\/anne-miller\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Rates Tip Was On The Money - southburnett.com.au","description":"Anyone who attended last week's economic update evening, hosted by the Kingaroy Chamber of Commerce of Industry, won't have been surprised by Tuesday's interest rates announcement.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/08\/01\/rates-tip-was-on-the-money\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Rates Tip Was On The Money - southburnett.com.au","og_description":"Anyone who attended last week's economic update evening, hosted by the Kingaroy Chamber of Commerce of Industry, won't have been surprised by Tuesday's interest rates announcement.","og_url":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/08\/01\/rates-tip-was-on-the-money\/","og_site_name":"southburnett.com.au","article_published_time":"2023-08-01T07:10:08+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-08-02T11:07:41+00:00","og_image":[{"width":740,"height":460,"url":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/20230724kcci.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Anne Miller","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Anne Miller","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/08\/01\/rates-tip-was-on-the-money\/","url":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/08\/01\/rates-tip-was-on-the-money\/","name":"Rates Tip Was On The Money - southburnett.com.au","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-08-01T07:10:08+00:00","dateModified":"2023-08-02T11:07:41+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/#\/schema\/person\/d43a5027bdddc95f54e9c6274d8a57ae"},"description":"Anyone who attended last week's economic update evening, hosted by the Kingaroy Chamber of Commerce of Industry, won't have been surprised by Tuesday's interest rates announcement.","inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/08\/01\/rates-tip-was-on-the-money\/"]}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/#website","url":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/","name":"southburnett.com.au","description":"Kingaroy and South Burnett News","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/#\/schema\/person\/d43a5027bdddc95f54e9c6274d8a57ae","name":"Anne Miller","url":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/author\/anne-miller\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/335225"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=335225"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/335225\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":335236,"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/335225\/revisions\/335236"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/335226"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=335225"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=335225"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=335225"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}