{"id":329479,"date":"2023-03-03T13:17:03","date_gmt":"2023-03-03T03:17:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/?p=329479"},"modified":"2023-03-03T17:13:14","modified_gmt":"2023-03-03T07:13:14","slug":"el-nino-could-develop-wmo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/03\/03\/el-nino-could-develop-wmo\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o Could Develop: WMO"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>
Probabilistic forecasts of surface air temperature for March-May 2023 (Figure: WMO)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

March 3, 2023\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

An El Ni\u00f1o event could develop in the coming months after three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn and protracted La Ni\u00f1a, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).<\/p>\n

However, both the WMO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are cautious about the prediction.<\/p>\n

The current La Ni\u00f1a, associated with above-average rainfall in south-east Asia and Australasia, began in September 2020 and is currently weakening.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o events, in contrast, are often associated with low rainfall or drought in Australia.<\/p>\n

The WMO said a return of El Ni\u00f1o would be proceeded by a period of ENSO-neutral conditions (90 per cent probability) during March-May, ie.\u00a0neither El Ni\u00f1o nor La Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n

The likelihood of neutral conditions continuing beyond May dropped slightly but remained high (80 per cent in April-June and 60 per cent in May-July), based on the model predictions.<\/p>\n

The chances of an El Ni\u00f1o developing, while low in the first half of the year (15 per cent in April-June), gradually rose to 35 per cent in May-July.<\/p>\n

However, long-lead forecasts for June-August indicated a much higher chance (55\u00a0 per cent) of El Ni\u00f1o developing. But the WMO warned these forecasts were uncertain.<\/strong><\/p>\n

BOM is also cautious about an El Ni\u00f1o developing.<\/p>\n

“All but one of the surveyed international climate models suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will remain neutral through autumn; one model is neutral in March and April but touches on El Ni\u00f1o thresholds in May,” an update issued on February 28 stated.<\/p>\n

“ENSO outlooks extending beyond autumn should be viewed with caution as models typically have lower forecast accuracy at this time of year.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A warming El Ni\u00f1o event could develop in the coming months after three consecutive years La Ni\u00f1a, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":329523,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3,36],"tags":[1134],"yoast_head":"\nEl Ni\u00f1o Could Develop: WMO - southburnett.com.au<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A warming El Ni\u00f1o event could develop in the coming months after three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn and protracted La Ni\u00f1a, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/03\/03\/el-nino-could-develop-wmo\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El Ni\u00f1o Could Develop: WMO - southburnett.com.au\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A warming El Ni\u00f1o event could develop in the coming months after three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn and protracted La Ni\u00f1a, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/03\/03\/el-nino-could-develop-wmo\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"southburnett.com.au\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-03-03T03:17:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-03-03T07:13:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/map.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"300\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Anne Miller\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Anne Miller\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/03\/03\/el-nino-could-develop-wmo\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/03\/03\/el-nino-could-develop-wmo\/\",\"name\":\"El Ni\u00f1o Could Develop: WMO - southburnett.com.au\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-03-03T03:17:03+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-03-03T07:13:14+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/#\/schema\/person\/d43a5027bdddc95f54e9c6274d8a57ae\"},\"description\":\"A warming El Ni\u00f1o event could develop in the coming months after three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn and protracted La Ni\u00f1a, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/03\/03\/el-nino-could-develop-wmo\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/\",\"name\":\"southburnett.com.au\",\"description\":\"Kingaroy and South Burnett News\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/#\/schema\/person\/d43a5027bdddc95f54e9c6274d8a57ae\",\"name\":\"Anne Miller\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/author\/anne-miller\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"El Ni\u00f1o Could Develop: WMO - southburnett.com.au","description":"A warming El Ni\u00f1o event could develop in the coming months after three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn and protracted La Ni\u00f1a, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/03\/03\/el-nino-could-develop-wmo\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"El Ni\u00f1o Could Develop: WMO - southburnett.com.au","og_description":"A warming El Ni\u00f1o event could develop in the coming months after three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn and protracted La Ni\u00f1a, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.","og_url":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/03\/03\/el-nino-could-develop-wmo\/","og_site_name":"southburnett.com.au","article_published_time":"2023-03-03T03:17:03+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-03-03T07:13:14+00:00","og_image":[{"width":300,"height":200,"url":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/map.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Anne Miller","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Anne Miller","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/03\/03\/el-nino-could-develop-wmo\/","url":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/03\/03\/el-nino-could-develop-wmo\/","name":"El Ni\u00f1o Could Develop: WMO - southburnett.com.au","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-03-03T03:17:03+00:00","dateModified":"2023-03-03T07:13:14+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/#\/schema\/person\/d43a5027bdddc95f54e9c6274d8a57ae"},"description":"A warming El Ni\u00f1o event could develop in the coming months after three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn and protracted La Ni\u00f1a, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.","inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2023\/03\/03\/el-nino-could-develop-wmo\/"]}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/#website","url":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/","name":"southburnett.com.au","description":"Kingaroy and South Burnett News","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/#\/schema\/person\/d43a5027bdddc95f54e9c6274d8a57ae","name":"Anne Miller","url":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/author\/anne-miller\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/329479"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=329479"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/329479\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":329522,"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/329479\/revisions\/329522"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/329523"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=329479"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=329479"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=329479"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}