{"id":185053,"date":"2017-07-25T16:40:24","date_gmt":"2017-07-25T06:40:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/?p=185053"},"modified":"2020-09-08T12:24:12","modified_gmt":"2020-09-08T02:24:12","slug":"csiro-warns-about-el-nino-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2017\/07\/25\/csiro-warns-about-el-nino-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"CSIRO Warns About El Ni\u00f1o Rise"},"content":{"rendered":"
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FLASHBACK: Bjelke-Petersen Dam during drought … the CSIRO has warned that even in a best case scenario, the number of El Ni\u00f1o events\u00a0will increase over the next 100 years<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

July 25, 2017<\/strong><\/p>\n

The CSIRO says the frequency of extreme El Ni\u00f1o events is likely to increase for 100 years even when global mean temperature is stabilised at 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels.<\/p>\n

Research published this week in the journal “Nature Climate Change”\u00a0by an international team shows that if warming is halted at the aspirational 1.5\u00b0C target stated in the Paris Agreement, the frequency of extreme El Ni\u00f1o events could continue to increase due to a continuation of faster warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific.<\/p>\n

CSIRO researcher and lead author Dr Guojian Wang said the growing risk of extreme El Ni\u00f1o events did not stabilise in a stabilised climate.<\/p>\n

“Currently the risk of extreme El Ni\u00f1o events is around five events per 100 years,” Dr Wang said.<\/p>\n

“This doubles to approximately 10 events per 100 years by 2050, when our modelled emissions scenario reaches a peak of 1.5\u00b0C warming.<\/p>\n

“After this, as faster warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific persists, the risk of extreme El Ni\u00f1o continues upwards to about 14 events per 100 years by 2150.<\/p>\n

“This result is unexpected and shows that future generations will experience greater climate risks associated with extreme El Ni\u00f1o events than seen at 1.5\u00b0C warming.”<\/strong><\/p>\n

The research was based on five climate models that predict future scenarios past 2100.<\/p>\n

The models were run using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\u2019s lowest emissions scenario which requires negative emissions late in the century.<\/p>\n

Director of the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research and report co-author Dr Wenju Cai said the research continued important work on the impacts of climate change on the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation which is a significant driver of global climate.<\/p>\n

“The most severe previous extreme El Ni\u00f1o events occurred in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16, years associated with worldwide climate extremes,” Dr Cai said.<\/p>\n

“Extreme El Ni\u00f1o events occur when the usual El Ni\u00f1o Pacific rainfall centre is pushed eastward toward South America, sometimes up to 16,000 kilometres, causing massive changes in the climate. The further east the centre moves, the more extreme the El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

“This pulls rainfall away from Australia bringing conditions that have commonly resulted in intense droughts across the nation. During such events, other countries like India, Ecuador, and China have experienced extreme events with serious socio-economic consequences.”<\/p>\n

The research indicated that\u00a0under a scenario of climate stabilisation (ie. 1.5\u00b0C warming) there would be little or no change to La Ni\u00f1a events, which can increase Australian rainfall.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The CSIRO says the frequency of extreme El Ni\u00f1o events is likely to increase for 100 years even when global mean temperature is stabilised at 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":185071,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3,36],"tags":[1134],"yoast_head":"\nCSIRO Warns About El Ni\u00f1o Rise<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The CSIRO says the frequency of extreme El Ni\u00f1o events is likely to increase for 100 years even when global mean temperature is stabilised\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/southburnett.com.au\/news2\/2017\/07\/25\/csiro-warns-about-el-nino-rise\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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